The epidemiology and burden of global osteoarthritis: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease database

Sun, Jiaojiao1,#; Han, Shuang1,#; Liang, Jiajia1,#; Liu, Wenjie1; Xing, Zheng2; Li, Qi2; Li, Qingwen1; Chu, Xiaolei2,*

1Tianjin Key Laboratory of Exercise Physiology and Sports Medicine, School of Exercise and Health, Tianjin Sports Institute, Tianjin, China

2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Tianjin Hospital, Tianjin, China

*Correspondence to: Xiaolei Chu, PhD, 1218235004@tju.edu.cn.

Abstract

Osteoarthritis, a degenerative disorder characterized by progressive articular cartilage degradation, not only induces joint pain, stiffness, functional impairment, and deformity but also significantly elevates the risk of cardiovascular events, deep vein thrombosis, and hip fractures, substantially compromising patients’ quality of life. With increasing global population aging, osteoarthritis has emerged as a major public health concern worldwide. Although studies have been conducted to explore the epidemiological characteristics of osteoarthritis, systematic analyses addressing regional, age, and sex differences on a global scale are still lacking. Therefore, this study integrated multidimensional epidemiological data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to assess the global prevalence and burden of osteoarthritis (as measured by disability-adjusted life-years) and to analyze the prevalence and burden of osteoarthritis types in different age groups and sexes. Additionally, risk factors associated with osteoarthritis were identified through risk analysis. The global disease burden of osteoarthritis and its trend by 2035 were analyzed and predicted by the Bayesian age–period–cohort model. The results of the present study revealed significant regional differences in the prevalence of osteoarthritis and disability-adjusted life years, which increased significantly with age, especially in the middle-aged and older age groups. In addition, sex differences were an important factor, with a significantly greater prevalence in women than in men. Further risk factor analysis revealed that metabolic factors and high body mass index are important risk factors for the development of osteoarthritis and its health burden, especially when the body mass index is outside the normal range. Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling projections indicate that the global osteoarthritis prevalence may surpass 12,000 cases per 100,000 people by 2035. This global burden of disease analysis provides crucial insights into the epidemiological trajectory of osteoarthritis, highlighting the critical role of population aging, obesity epidemics, and metabolic syndrome in driving disease burden. These findings suggest that greater attention should be given to these factors in the development of public health policies and individualized intervention strategies to effectively reduce the health burden of osteoarthritis, slow the onset and progression of the disease, and improve the quality of life of the population.

全球骨关节炎的流行病学和负担：基于 GBD 数据库的系统分析

摘要

随着全球人口老龄化加速，骨关节炎已成为全球关注的主要公共卫生问题。尽管已有研究探讨了骨关节炎的流行病学特征，但仍缺乏针对全球范围内地区、年龄和性别差异的系统分析。因此，此研究整合了基于全球疾病负担（GBD）2021 数据库的多维流行病学数据，以评估骨关节炎的全球患病率和疾病负担（以残疾调整生命年（DALYs）衡量），并分析不同年龄组和性别的骨关节炎患病率和疾病负担。此外，还通过风险分析揭示了与骨关节炎相关的风险因素。通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型（BAPC model）分析和预测了全球骨关节炎的疾病负担及其到 2035 年的趋势。研究结果表明，骨关节炎的患病率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）存在显著的地区差异，并且随着年龄的增长而显著增加，尤其是在中老年群体中。此外，性别差异也是一个重要因素，女性的患病率明显高于男性。进一步的风险因素分析表明，代谢因素和高体质量指数是骨关节炎发病及其健康负担的重要风险因素，尤其是当体重指数超出正常范围时。BAPC 模型预测显示，到 2035 年，全球骨关节炎患病率可能超过每 10 万人 12,000 例。这项全球疾病负担分析提供了有关骨关节炎流行病学轨迹的重要见解，强调了人口老龄化、肥胖流行和代谢综合征在推动疾病负担方面的关键作用。研究结果表明，在制定公共卫生政策和个体化干预策略时，应更多地关注这些因素，以有效减轻骨关节炎的健康负担，延缓疾病的发生和发展，提高人们的生活质量。